12ème séminaire de politiques publiques du CES

Le séminaire S2P propose environ deux fois par mois de septembre à juin une discussion sur un ouvrage ou un article traitant des problèmes posés par les politiques publiques. Il se propose de continuer dans cette voie tout en continuant son travail de veille scientifique sur les grands débats de finances publique.

Mardi 19 mars 2024 17h-19H Salle 6
EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit
Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen, Tristan Kohl* (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, The Netherlands, t.kohl@rug.nl)
Le BREXIT a eu d’importants effets sur le commerce international. Le gouvernement anglais a proposé de renouveler ces accords de libre-échange en mettant en œuvre la stratégie dite du « Global Britain ». Il a aussi cherché à dissuader l’Ecosse, l’Irlande du Nord et le Pays de Galles à demander leur indépendance. Sur la base d’un modèle de simulation il est probable que ce type de stratégie ne compensera pas les pertes commerciales induites par le BREXIT. Il suffirait de renouveler les accords commerciaux qu’avait le Royaume-Uni avant sa sortie pour que les préjudices post-Brexit soit annulé.

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy, in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that ‘Global Britain’ yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that independence from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be entirely removed for each of these devolved nations conditional on a renewed trade deal with the EU.

Mardi 24 septembre 2024 17h-19h Salle 6

Pay and unemployment determinants of migration flows in the European Union
António Afonso, José Alves* (ISEG – School of Economics and Management University of Lisbon Portugal) & Krzysztof Beck
We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995-2019 period, we use Bayesian Model Averaging and quantile regression to assess notably the relevance of unemployment and earnings. We find that the existence of a common border increases the number of net migrants by 172 people per 1000 inhabitants. In addition, 1000 PPP Euro increase in the difference in net annual salaries increases net migration by approximately 50 and 42 people per 1000 inhabitants in a working age of both countries under uniform and binomial-beta model prior, respectively. Moreover, one percentage point increase in the difference in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase in net immigration by approximately 6 and 3 persons by 1000 inhabitants in both countries. These results are also corroborated with the quantile regression results. Hence, human capital inside the EU is moving in search of higher cross-country earnings.